UNC vs SDSU
Line: UNC -4.5, O/U 141.5
My pick: SDSU
UNC has been awful in Q1 this year, and honestly shouldn't have made the tourney. They have one Q1 win, whereas SDSU has 3, including a win vs Houston and Creighton. Both teams are battle tested vs tournament teams, but I think SDSU defense will push them over the top. They hold teams to the 17th least points per game, and are 9th in the country in blocks per game, and 76th in steals. They also don't foul very often, and UNC is very reliant on free throws, being 78th in the country in free throws made and attempted. SDSU coach Brian Dutcher is also very experienced in the tournament, and will outcoach Hubert Davis. At the end of the day, I think this is a physical game and SDSU comes out with a gritty, low scoring win.
Texas vs Xavier
Line: Xavier -2.5, O/U 151.5
My pick: Texas
These are both extremely talented teams, both who have been hot towards the end of the year. It was hard to decide which way to go, as they both played in great conferences vs good tournament teams. Ultimately, I think Texas winning 3 of their last 5 vs tournament teams is what pushes me towards them. Tre Johnson has been a top freshman in the country, and with the team starting to get healthier, I think they will potentially make a run. Texas is very good at not fouling, and are very good on the interior, which will help to slow down Zach Freemantle. This will also be a great game but ultimately I have Texas.
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